Bennelong – Australia 2028

I just noticed that Bennelong and Reid were Labor gains (from the Liberals) in 2022 and yet their current margins are higher those of Werriwa and McMahon. The latter two are traditionally Labor heartland seats. From what I have heard, Jerome Laxale is a fierce campaigner.

John Howard would’ve loved the current boundaries in 2007. The Lower North Shore was Liberal heartland back then. Successive redistributions shifted the seat westward and eventually it lost Lane Cove and Hunters Hill LGAs. In his final term, it was extended to Ermington. The current electorate is a bit more like John Howard’s earlier days where it was both east and west of Lane Cove River.

It’s more the Libs absolutely turning off voters in those 2 electorates which normally should be reasonably comfortable seats for them.

@Votante The 1974 (when Howard was first elected) and 2025 Bennelong boundaries are quite similar, the only difference is that 2025 stretches further west than 1974, and the 1974 boundaries compensated by meeting the North Shore railway line. Howard definitely would’ve held on in 2007 under these current boundaries.

@Dan M Bennelong, yes. Reid, not really, as Lowe used to randomly swing until it was renamed Reid. Also funny to point out that both are directly opposite the Parramatta River to each other, and both swung away from the Liberals at the same time.

Even if Howard held on he would have resigned after losing the election and labor prolly won the by election due to the popularity of the Rudd govt. unless John Alexander ran then it might have been tight

If I apply Statewide polling averages in NSW to the existing primary vote here AND assume Liberal Preferences break 70% to One Nation, I get:

ALP – 43.19%
ONE Nation – 42.59%

I assume it would be even closer because the minor parties here last time disproportionately flowed to the Liberals (albeit academic)

Is a 70% split in Liberal prefs to One Nation reasonable? Perhaps too high given the Asian population in this seat?

Lars
Bennelong will be a seat where you can almost categorically say that ON will not be in the final two – too Asian at one end and too wealthy socially liberal at the other. The questions are “what chance is there that the Liberal vote will recover?” and “why was it so diabolically bad last time?”.
Last time almost all of Kylie Tinks Teal voters went straight to the ALP and Peter Dutton seemed particularly toxic here. How much of the Liberal decline was due to Scott Yung? Seemed like a dream candidate but had lots of problems during the campaign. The Libs having no incumbent may also have been an issue after they mucked it up in 2022 with the late endorsement of Simon Kennedy as parachuted candidate – though he seems to have done OK in Cook. Would they be in with a chance with a good candidate?

I would say that if One Nation have a shot here, they are headed for a seat count in the triple digits.

Well I take the point – according to the ABS on the 2022 boundaries the Asian vote was 45% of the electorate – albeit areas like Epping have been swapped out for Hunters Hill so the figure may be a bit lower.

More broadly – if the State based averages reflect a variable swing and seats miss the swing – where does it manifest. I could see a ONP primary of 40% in a seat like Parkes but its still not enough to dissipate a statewide swing of 20% plus (on current figures). Maybe the outer urban seats as well – but it must mean swings more like 30% if you rule outside the middle ring suburbs of Sydney and seats like Reid or Bennelong.

The nowcast on AEF may have some insight.

According to the model, One Nation would get 26.3% of the national primary vote if an election were held today. The expected One Nation primary in Bennelong is 16.1%. In Parkes, it is 41.6% – spot on with what you suggested. In the outer suburbs, I see 34.3% in Hume, 29.3% in Lindsay, 32.1% in Macarthur, and 30.4% in McMahon. I think that concurs with your hypothesis.